Click here for a new report on Vietnam 2008 crop

Two weeks ago, on November 14th we wrote that it was suposed to be a lazy week in Brazil due to long holidays.
Well, it looks that not only in Brazil...
After that we had the Thanksgiving in USA but all over looks like the market stopped.
Yesterday an american report said that " Black Pepper markets remain neglected with limited activity"
Anyhow we dont see any desperate mood to sell. Brazil is quiet, Vietnam is quiet...
Seems that sellers are just watching the market and waiting for any oportunity.
In Brazil the last two days the dollar rate rised strongly - around 3,4% between min and max - so some exporters may offer bargains to close the month.
Yesterday report from Vietnam FAQ 550 at U$D 3,340 and ASTA at U$D 3,660 FOB.
 

Holidays in Brazil from November 15th to November 20th

It´s a very lazy week in Brazil as the 15th and the 20th are holidays with a weekend in the middle, so no big activity here.
During the previous 3 days, since last monday some brazilian exporters pressed by the needs of export performance accepted some deal with prices below the market average such as lot of ASTA at 3,350 and some offers of B1 at 3,250. However it does not looks like a tendency or a trend.
Anyhow we´d know better after the holidays. India is still high at 3,800 for MG1, Vietnam reported ASTA at 3,450 and 550 at 3,350

The 35th IPC´s Meeting will be hold from monday October 29, to November 2nd
At the Corus Hotel in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Click here for more info and registration.

The week started with big interest from the buyers for brazilian pepper but sales were poor.
The buying pressure made the prices jump up but most of the sellers stepped out expecting further rises up to U$ 4,000 and more.
Prices started with U$ 3,500 and ended with U$ 3,800. India ranged between U$ 3,800 and U$ 4,050. Apparently the cheapest origin was Indonesia with U$ 3,500 - U$ 3,600. New and consistent rumors on weather and crop failure in India and Brazil. New statistics from Brazil show shipments fall by more than 50% in September.
Click here for more information about Brazilian market.
Click here for the new comparison chart of brazilian x vietnamese exports in 2007.

Pepper prices steady to firm at origins with 2 excemptions: India where speculative exchanges pull prices up and down day-by-day and Brazil where some very cheap sales happened over the last 2 days, giving a renewed base to bears wake up.
Fundamentals didn´t change and prices at the weel close were U$D 3250 in India, U$D 3600 in Vietnam and U$D 3,400 in Brazil
Click here for more information about Brazilian market.
Click here for the new brazilian stats analizis.

Updating September 25th
Markets steady and somehow dull. Purchases happen slowly from USA and Europe.
New weakness of dollar rate keeps origin prices up. Brazilian B1 U$D 3,350 to U$D 3,450 FOB depending of source and quality.
A report from Amberwood Trading say "...Pepper prices moving sideways and quickly reacting on whether there is good demand or not!..."
This week we publish new USA import statistics updated to July.
Also new graph for pepper prices since 2006 is available.
Yesterday, september 24th we published information about possible reduction of brazilian current crop. Today we received several calls from either growers and exporters warning that the total crop may be even smaller, somewhere in a range tof 25 to 30,000 ton.

Markets steady and somehow dull. Purchases happen slowly from USA and Europe.
New weakness of dollar rate keeps origin prices up. Brazilian B1 U$D 3,350 to U$D 3,450 FOB depending of source and quality.
A report from Amberwood Trading say "...Pepper prices moving sideways and quickly reacting on whether there is good demand or not!..."
This week we publish new USA import statistics updated to July.
Also new graph for pepper prices since 2006 is available.

The black pepper market continues its track of steady/duliness, with some stronger emotions only at India´s exchanges, were future prices may vary up to U$D 200 from day-to-day. American and European buyers are apparently absent. However local rumors in Brazil say about some very silent purchases by American traders at U$D 3,400 levels for ASTA grade, under special financial arrangements. From and To Whom is always ommited.
Anyhow B1 are still at U$D 3,350 and the exporters do not seem very interested to sell.
Today a general meeting was called to ABEP members to analize the overall situation and trends.
Vietnam offered today 500 gl at U$D 3,280, and 560 gl at U$D 3,400, both fob and cleaned altough lower grades may be cheaper.
 

Despite rumors and unprecisely informed values published by some media over the weekend, brazilian price for B1 continues at U$D 3,350 pmt fob level for B1 560 gl. Altough much lower bids were received for November / December, exportres refused, choosing to wait and see where the market will go.
With the farmgate prices at U$D 2,990 there is not much left to negotiate.

We were reported of brazilian exporters selling allspice pimento to mexican shipper with final destination in the middle east. Since brazilian price for allspice is around U$D 3,000 pmt fob this may indicate a possible problem with the present mexican harvest.

LAST MINUTE NOTICE

Just received a mail communication that the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry workers are beginning a strike as from 28th August.
As it is their duty to supervise the agricultural products quality and to issue the phytosanitary certificates, pepper shipments may be dalayed or even postponed until the end of the strike.
 

Once again the buyers vanished.
After a brief moment of activity last thursday and friday the market halted as from monday.
Buyers stepped out and so did the sellers. So prices are nominal. The dollar in Brazil came down again and although some publications metion the 3300 pmt for B1 it is not easy to find some reliable supplier at this level.
As for the white pepper from Brazil the situation is even worse: while the intl market trades around U$D 5300 c&f brazilian growers ask almost the same level for ungarbled, farmgate product.
MEXICAN ALLSPICE - The buyers of this commodity should keep one eye open as the Dean hurricane may push the new crop prices up.
Click here for the latest move of the hurricane

Despite the world exchanges turbulence, in Brazil the week was of great activity and good results.
The sudden rise of the dollar rate last thursday, more than 10%, was good for brazilian pepper trade.
Exporters restructured financial situation, prices droped and several orders were booked.
The dollar rate came back to normal on friday and further offers are subject to re-confirmaton on monday.
BASTA was traded at 3,400, B1 at 3,350 thursday. On friday it was back to 3,550 and 3,450 / 3,500 respectively.

This week the prices from all the origins fell sharply bringing a sensation that it might be a long downtrack with the arrivals of brazilian and indonesian crops. It´s still too early to evaluate if the crash in the stock exchanges all over the world could contaminate the spices market, but the India´s market analist credit part of the futures fall to this.
However must be considered, at least in Brazil, that the bearish trend may be caused by the short term selling pressure.
After long time out of market, some growers and exporters are restructuring their cashflow and debts profiles that helped them keep stocks. After this procedure and refueled they may certanly step out of the market, expecting a new prices rally closer tho the end of the year, due to the weak crop which is expected from Vietnam. So most certanly this could be the moment for purchases.

Downward Trend ? - This week we had heard of some much lower orices in India where ASTA was reported on wednesday at U$D 3575 FOB.
Also reported a downwards trend in Vietnam pushed prices to U$D 3600 pmt for ASTA, U$D 3500 for 550 gl at the week close.
Altough other reports from USAcited Brazil offering ASTA at U$D 3650 we did not find such prices. As for our knowledge Brazilian exporters stay firm at their proposed target : nothing below U$D3700.
Well, possibly not so firm if someone comes up with a bid of around U$D 3600 - U$D 3650.
As the week closed India MG1 ASTA was offered at U$D 3675.

Much Ado About Nothing - Shakespeare possibly knew some pepper market players.
Because that´s the best definition of how the market behaviour is these days.
Lots of reports, figures, previews, estimates, meetings, "detentes", trends up, trends down... The only ingredient missing is...
THE BUYER !
The buyers disapeared this week. We had a lot of literature to justify the prices´s rise, next-year crops, end-year crops disastrous reports but there was no way the sales to happen.
Prices in India and Vietnam decreased, in Brazil increased, and sales vanished.
Let´s wait for another play. Who knows next week may all change ?
As the week close we had India down to 3,700 FOB, Vietnam 500gl at 3,350,  550gl at 3,550  and ASTA 3,800, Brazil steady, 560gl at 3,750-3,800.
Indonesia ? Indonesia issued a report...

Market essencialy still stood. Rare reports of small punctual deals.
The only strong activity is felt in India due to various trial changes introduced in futures trades in an attempt to bring the market under control.
Actually this year India has been very active in the international market due its competiveness. American import satistics show a huge increase from this origin in the first quarter of 2007 - 4,950 mt compared to 1,481 mt in 2006.
Brazilian crop is almost on the corner but there is still good quantities from last season held by some exporters.
Prices were reported somehow unstable during the week in Vietnam - 500 gl from U$D 3,250 to U$D 3,550 and unchanged in Brazil for B1 560g/ - U$D 3,700. Brazilian Real rate is a strong obstacle for prices to come down.
We also were told that brazilian ABEP did not authorized its chairman´s trip to meet the VPA and AELI for the summit supposed to begin tomorrow 25th.
Click here for comments about new Brazilian and American statistics.

Vietnam 500 gl for U$D 3,660 / U$D 3,700 / U$D 3,710 / U$D 3,750 and U$D 3,850
Vietnam 560 gl for U$D 3,900 and U$D 4,050
All FOB.
Anyhow Brazilian offers at U$D 3,800 FOB for 560 gl were not replied.
India reports some sales to USA for MG1 ASTA at U$D 3,950 CFR. Also some rumors about U$D 4,050 CFR.
Read more...


2007-05-05

A new rally in the pepper industry pushed the prices over U$ 4,000 in Vietnam and as the week closed very near to this in Brazil. In just 10 days prices rised U$D 550 from U$ 3,400 to U$D 3,950 asked this friday for brazilian B1 FOB - 16% !
The figures are very impressive: nearly U$D 1,000 pmt in one month - 35%. Actually a very big uncertainty grabs the buyers - why is it happening ? will it stop ? when ? at which level ? will it sustain ?
It is time to take very risky decisions but at least in short terms there was huge profit involved. Vietnam is rulling the market but in Brazil where the main season begin in August some stocks are still available in strong hands. Aside of this default are beginning to occur. Click here for more considerations...

2007-04-26
PEPPER - HERE WE GO AGAIN !
While Vietnam is celebrating the Victory Hollidays Peper Market become a mess of different reports where prices are told with big differences.
We know for sure that brazilian offers on 24th April at U$ 3,400 were ignored at the same time that reportedy were booked the next day st over U$ 3,500.
It is more than U$ 100,00 per ton ! Looks like nobody cares very much about to loose or winn some bucks in 24 hours.
Reports received today from Indian Media traditionally bullish are of steady market while american traders warn on bullish trend.
What all this situation causes is to reinforce the growers and exporters belief of an even further bullish market and asked prices go up and up.
Last prices we got today were:
from Brazil B1 at U$ 3,550 and no offers for B2 500 gl.
From Vietnam was said to be U$ 3,700 for ASTA although it´s holliday.
India reported some deals at U$ 3,950 and LASTA at U$ 3,900

2007-04-26
PEPPER - HERE WE GO AGAIN !
While Vietnam is celebrating the Victory Hollidays Peper Market become a mess of different reports where prices are told with big differences.
We know for sure that brazilian offers on 24th April at U$ 3,400 were ignored at the same time that reportedy were booked the next day st over U$ 3,500.
It is more than U$ 100,00 per ton ! Looks like nobody cares very much about to loose or winn some bucks in 24 hours.
Reports received today from Indian Media traditionally bullish are of steady market while american traders warn on bullish trend.
What all this situation causes is to reinforce the growers and exporters belief of an even further bullish market and asked prices go up and up.
Last prices we got today were:
from Brazil B1 at U$ 3,550 and no offers for B2 500 gl.
From Vietnam was said to be U$ 3,700 for ASTA although it´s holliday.
India reported some deals at U$ 3,950 and LASTA at U$ 3,900

2007-04-16
During the last week pepper market exploded, or, quoting The Hindu Business Line " The market overheated and turned fluid"
The constant pressure for the new Vietnamian arrivals and longs wish for everrising prices made offers unbearable. Rumors on defaults spread and some sellers stepped out to avoid risks.
This morning talks in Brazil where that some sales happened during the weekend at U$D 3,800 FOB. However noone knew who the sellers nor buyers involved.
Later during the day market eased somehow with some longs offering firm limited lots at U$ 3,500 /mt average still with a very short validity and immediate payment terms to protect against new price rush.
Looks like we´ll face a new crucial week.

2007-04-04
The pepper market turned very volatile again since the last two weeks.
Some exporters wirh long positions tryied succesfully to push the market up and the result is that at the moment it is very difficult to get reliable offers at reasonable price as most of the sellers stepped out of the market.
Apparently some buyers waited an etxra time for Vietnam new crop arrivals, expecting prices to drop and had run out of coverage at this moment. However no significant interest from buyers has been seen as they still waiting for prices to come down in the next days. Meantime the bulls are not loosing time: this week a brief statement by the Chairman of Brazilian Pepper Exporters Association that pepper prices may possibly rise up to U$D 5,000 was published by Peppertrade and reproduced by Commoditiescontrol.com fueling the bullish trend and generating India´s futures prices increase of U$D 125 / 150 per MT.
This monday Vietnam 500 g/l at U$D 2,650 and Brazil 560 at U$D 2,750 were asked but some sales from Brazil were reported at U$D 2,675 for B1 560 for specific deals.

UPDATE ON APRIL 5th
As the Easter Week is closing today´s reports said that Vietnam was asking U$D 2,940 /mt FOB for 500g/l. Whether it was taken or not is unknow. The fact is that Brazil seems to be the cheapest origin at the moment for B1 - 560 g/l if a reliable seller is found for around U$ 2,950 / 3,000 FOB, but not for long as the sellers there are eachtime more reluctant and most of them are short. Farmgate parity jumped up to U$ 2,700.
Possibly some 700 mt were sold this week from available stocks which reduces estimate stock left to somewhere between 3 and 4 K ton. Exporters holding 500 / 600 tons are some, but betting on further rise in prices are out of market.
B2 500 g/l from Brazil is unavailable. Brazil will be closed again from Friday to Monday due to Easter.

2007-03-24
After several weeks of relatively steady and calm, market moved all of the sudden in the last 3 days. Vietnam moved up to 2,720 for ASTA and 2,550 for 550 g/l immediately followed by Brazil with 2,650 for ASTA and 2,600 B1 under the very early reaction.
Immediately most of brazilian sellers stepped out of the market in a waiting for development attitude. B2 and 500 g/l are more reasonable from both origins: 2,350 / 2,450 if a seller is found.

2007-03-10
PEPPER: Market is beginning its normal activity after along period of several holydays. Despite buyers wishes of bearish trends it looks more steady and stable than downtrended.
Vietnam pepper prices are relatively stable this week, apparently new crop picking is just starting there. Nevertheless it is most unlikely that Vietnam exporters will be agressive in this beginnig of the season, mostly because they have no reason for that.
India seems trying to adjust their prives down but than they will depend of imports to supply thei local market further on in June, July.
Indonesia and Malaysia do not seems worried about their prices.
On the other side Brazil may have some in between of 5,000 mt to 8,000 mt carryover stocks but it is very difficult to obtain a suitable price mostly from Belem area. Growers, reluctant are asking the parity of U$ 2,150 /mt at farmgate. It is easier to get better offers from Vitoria port.

CLOVES: Prices for Brazil, Madagascar and Comores are at around U$ 3,500 /mt.
ALLSPICE: Brazil is the origin to be negotiated at the moment. Mexican stocks are almost gone and the prices tend to go over U$ 3,000. Check here for more...

2007-03-03
Activity is increasing in the pepper market with origins trying to mantain prices level or to increase further after long heoliday period, supported by a variety of articles spread around in the specialized media. However buyers are very cautious expecting some bearish sentiment based on the new Vietnam crop. Some deals are heppining however very silently. This week Vietnam was aking 500 gl at U$D 2,400 and 550 g/l U$D 2,500. Brazil is asking U$D 2,650 for ASTA, U$D 2,550 for B1 and U$D 2,450 for B2. However some oportunities may be found at some 50 U$D discounts. We heard of some bids this week at U$D 2,300 but absolutely ignored by the exporters.

2007-02-17
Market extremely dull with buyers waiting further repositioning after Vietnam starts offering new crop in full swing.
Some deals are happening however with american buyers very discretely, and India´s players always trying to vreate bullish sentiments mostly to push their local futures market.

Vietnam and China are out of work due to Chinese New Year. Brazil out of work for Carnival.

We are closed until February 22nd.

So the life begin again on the last week of February.

2007-01-22

The Black Pepper prices in Brazil are gaining some strengh and slowly rising upon acceptance of buyers.
Last week B2 500 g/l rised from average U$ 2,250, monday to U$ 2,340 asked on friday. ASTA grade went to U$ 2,600 from U$ 2,500 asked monday.

According to The Hindu Business Line there have been reports of a sharp fall in the Indian new crop, which is projected at around 40,000 tonnes as against a domestic demand of an estimated 50,000 tonne. They also report that "... According to reports from Vietnam, it has raised the prices and is offering at $2,775 a tonne (c&f), while Indian parity is at around $2,900 a tonne (c&f).The international players who had been waiting for the prices to fall after the new Vietnamese crop hit the market seem to have turned towards India. Contrary to the rumours, the new crop from Vietnam is likely to arrive in the markets only by end February/March as harvesting will reportedly begin after the Vietnamese New Year day in Feb, market observers told..."

Meanwhile Cloves are very undefined with a very bullish sentiment however. Heavy rains and storms are reported in Madagascar which bring some uncertainity of shipping.
Some 15 days ago there were offers from MCZ origin for as low as U$ 2,500 - U$ 2,700 /mt but some sellers steped back and are waiting for a better definition of the market.
Brazilian Cloves are being asked somewhere in U$ 3,850 - U$ 4,100 /mt FOB

2007-01-11
" Indian crop looks very bad. New arrivals have shruken to unbeleivable lows. There is virtually Nothing coming out from the growing areas. Nevertheless, lot of cargo is getting booked and is leaving from there itself but that volumes is also minisicule in comparison from previous years. Most buyers depend on Vietnam for now on until Apr/May. We dont see an urgent rush to sell from any origins. If at all that comes thro, feel there will be buyers to pick them up. For sure, Indian crop is worse than expected though we are still midway thro harvest and atleast 2 or 3 main areas to be harvested until the next 8 weeks or so..."

We receive reports from India betting that prices will rise .
Apparently harvest is delayed and weak and, possibly, India will import heavily from March - April on
The new harvest from Vietnam may be available for shipping from the second week of February.
However we'll have the THET festival on the second half of February and the most certain is that shipments actually may begin in March.
Brazil still has a stock of some 12,000 mt, but the exporters, with few specific exemptions are not very enthusiatic about to sell now.
There is no buying pressure from USA nor Europe. The only significant interest is felt from gulf and orient countries.
 

2006-12-09
Market absolutelly dull with no trade. India reports prices that are very uneven: some say prices were offered at U$ 2,375 other U$ 2,525 for MG1. Brazil was asking U$ 2,450 for B1 although some say there were trades at U$ 2,300.
Anyhow we do not see buyers interested at this moment.
This week some brazilian growers and exporters visited Vietnam inland to evaluate the new coming crop. As usual they will probably report a shortage. That´s for marketing. The Hhindu Business Line wrote on December 8th:

"In the international market, the buyers are waiting and watching the situation even though there are only two sources viz., India and Brazil. Others, mainly Indonesia and Vietnam have not much to offer and, hence, quoting prices much above the Indian parity. Indonesia was quoting $2,900 a tonne (c&f) while Vietnam was offering Asta grade at $2,775 a tonne. Brazil said to be quoting at $2,425 a tonne (f.o.b.) while the Indian parity was at $2,525-2,600 a tonne (c&f). But, there are no takers even at these rates.
The reports that Vietnam will have an early harvesting and Indian new crop will hit the market soon appear to have enthused the overseas buyers to hold back till that time."

However a report received from other source in India said:

"Pepper takes a big fall in India. Today, prices lower by almost $ 80 ~ 100 PMT with lots of selling pressure in ready pepper emerging as futures plummet today. Prices nosedive heavily with panic among sellers. As contract expiry nears in the exchanges, panic among longs pushing prices down and down.

Weekly Highlights
2006-09-25

The week in Brazil was of uncertainity. Monday 18th begun with some exporters bidding up to R$ 5,50 per kg to the growers. The growers were very reluctant to accept in s hope that prices continues its path upwards. Btut from wendesday on the bids ceased suddenly.
On thursday and friday we got already some calls from growers asking about the market which is not usual when the market is up.
On friday some purchases were reported at R$ 4,70 and 4,60 at farmgate. Also on friday, 22nd offers for export for B1 at U$ 2,800 and U$ 2,700 were unresponded. Apparently new crop is arriving at full strengh and some growers who were holding stocks in the hope of better prices but short of cash need some sales.
Two and three days are not enough to assure any trend. Shall wait next week to watch developments.

This week we publish a market analizis. Click here
Click also for some more information received Saturday 23rd and
Rally in pepper mart headed for correction

2006-09-17
Todays pepper market picture
September 17th, 2006

Read full comentary here...

Read our last comentary here...



2006-08-30
Todays pepper market picture
August 30th, 2006 12:30 AM
 

Market open monday in Brazil under strong speculation and prices rapidly rised to U$ 2,100 FOB for B1.
Every rumor is for a good cause andprides rise by hour. The visit of an american broker also animated the mood and today some report have received firm bids at U$ 2,250. And the day is just at the noon with 6 full hours still to go yet...

The week begun stable and calm but by wendsday growers finaly got their prayers accepted in Brazil.
Exporters begun to accept higher prices and as result prices at farmgate rose strongly. Buyers in Europe who were reluctant for some time also agreed and all of sudden Brazilian origin prices went from 1,750 to 1,800 and on Friday bids at 1,900 FOB for B1 were untaken buy the sellers.
Still Brazil is the cheapest and easiest origin getting enquiries even from Vitnemian traders

There is an old saying " Morning is wiser than Evening"...
Sometimes is better leave the decision for next week´s Monday...
 

Market relatively steady with many buyers from everywhere but USA.
Some sales recorded from Brazil at average U$ 1,850 FOB for close shipment.
Some interest for future shipment but sellers reluctant due uncertain future.

Actualy some trade was done between Brazilian exporters and related  companies in Eurpoe as low as U$ 1,650 for BB2 however regular offers today are at 1,750 for BB2, 1,800 - 1,850 for BB1 / BASTA.
Vietnam exported a record figure of 89,000 mt during the first 7 month of 2006 according the THANHNIEN NEWS.
Click here to read all and also see the export figures for black and white pepper and desitantions during July 2006